Preseason Rankings
Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.8#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#182
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 27.4% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.6 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 61.0% 83.6% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 94.1% 83.8%
Conference Champion 21.8% 33.7% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four3.7% 3.2% 3.8%
First Round16.4% 26.0% 14.6%
Second Round1.2% 2.9% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 15.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.70.1 - 1.7
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.40.3 - 3.1
Quad 21.0 - 2.71.4 - 5.8
Quad 33.8 - 4.55.2 - 10.3
Quad 410.4 - 3.015.6 - 13.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 75   @ Illinois St. L 73-81 16%    
  Nov 11, 2018 10   @ Michigan St. L 67-83 4%    
  Nov 16, 2018 79   South Dakota St. L 77-84 35%    
  Nov 19, 2018 126   Toledo L 76-80 36%    
  Nov 20, 2018 180   Colorado St. W 77-76 50%    
  Nov 21, 2018 158   Texas San Antonio L 79-80 46%    
  Nov 25, 2018 266   @ Florida Atlantic W 77-72 58%    
  Nov 28, 2018 226   Florida International W 77-74 69%    
  Dec 02, 2018 209   Colgate W 75-73 67%    
  Dec 05, 2018 283   @ Oral Roberts W 76-71 59%    
  Dec 16, 2018 214   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-73 47%    
  Dec 22, 2018 16   Florida L 67-82 10%    
  Dec 29, 2018 118   @ Mississippi L 77-81 27%    
  Jan 05, 2019 155   Liberty L 69-71 56%    
  Jan 08, 2019 340   @ North Alabama W 78-66 78%    
  Jan 12, 2019 213   @ North Florida W 88-86 47%    
  Jan 19, 2019 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 80-69 77%    
  Jan 21, 2019 337   Stetson W 82-71 89%    
  Jan 24, 2019 136   @ Lipscomb L 82-85 30%    
  Jan 27, 2019 213   North Florida W 88-86 67%    
  Jan 30, 2019 228   @ NJIT W 74-71 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 289   Jacksonville W 79-73 77%    
  Feb 06, 2019 340   North Alabama W 78-66 90%    
  Feb 09, 2019 155   @ Liberty L 69-71 36%    
  Feb 13, 2019 228   NJIT W 74-71 69%    
  Feb 16, 2019 337   @ Stetson W 82-71 76%    
  Feb 20, 2019 136   Lipscomb L 82-85 49%    
  Feb 23, 2019 338   Kennesaw St. W 80-69 88%    
  Mar 01, 2019 289   @ Jacksonville W 79-73 60%    
Projected Record 15.6 - 13.4 10.4 - 5.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.5 6.2 3.9 1.0 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 6.2 7.9 4.2 0.8 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.4 6.6 2.0 0.2 19.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 3.2 6.4 4.5 0.9 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.1 2.3 1.1 0.1 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.5 9.0 12.0 13.8 14.5 13.1 10.9 7.0 3.9 1.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
15-1 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.2
14-2 88.0% 6.2    4.8 1.4 0.0
13-3 60.0% 6.5    3.4 2.7 0.4 0.0
12-4 24.8% 3.3    1.0 1.5 0.7 0.0
11-5 5.6% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 14.0 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.0% 81.4% 76.9% 4.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 19.4%
15-1 3.9% 60.0% 59.5% 0.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.6 1.1%
14-2 7.0% 47.6% 47.3% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 3.7 0.4%
13-3 10.9% 31.2% 31.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.8 7.5 0.0%
12-4 13.1% 23.8% 23.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 10.0
11-5 14.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 12.2
10-6 13.8% 10.7% 10.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 12.4
9-7 12.0% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 11.3
8-8 9.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.6
7-9 6.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-10 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-11 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-12 1.1% 1.1
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.1% 18.0% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.4 4.6 6.4 81.9 0.1%